The top global technology, media and telecom trends for 2014 include the 10 million unit year for wearable technologies and a potential upsurge of eVisits according to Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited’s (DTTL) 13th edition of the Global TMT Predictions. In addition, the report predicts that phablets — an oversized smartphone that is part cell phone, part tablet — will outsell tablets by €18 billion and the total global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets and gaming consoles will exceed €550 billion in 2014 and then plateau as consumer usage will continue to converge.

“As every year, we have published our predictions based on the core drivers of disruption in the sector: processor speed, connectivity and storage. In 2014 ruggedness will be emphasised as the key differentiator, making the cracked screen less common.” said Georges Kioes, Partner and Technology Media & Telecommunications Leader at Deloitte Luxembourg.“Additionally, smartphones, the largest component in the converged living room group (€275 billion revenue in 2014), are nearing saturation within most age groups, except for people above the age of 55, which appears to be the demographic group that still holds great potential for expansion.”

This year’s predictions also tackles eVisits and predict the practice to go mainstream. “Unlike regular doctor visits, eVisits capture patient information through forms, questionnaires and photos, rather than through direct interaction with a physician. We will see an inflection point in 2014 in their adoption, as they reduce travel time and costs as well as increase convenience and faster treatment for patients. It needs to be seen how fast this trend will develop in Luxembourg.” Georges Kioes added.

The report also looks well beyond 2014 and predicts a ‘perfect storm’ of conditions that could make Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) a major factor by 2020, representing over 10% of all courses taken in tertiary and enterprise continuing education. New technology, alternative modes of teaching and a need to continuously update quickly obsolete skills are driving the trend, suggesting MOOCs will grow enormously over the longer term, even if disruption is minimal in 2014.

 
Additional highlights and details of this year’s TMT predictions to impact the marketplace in 2014 include:

Technology

• Wearables: the eyes have it- Smart glasses, fitness bands and watches, should sell about 10 million units in 2014, generating €2 billion. Of these wearable computer form factors, smart glasses should generate the most revenues, from sales of about four million units at an average selling price (ASP) of €365. Smart fitness bands should sell four million units, at an ASP of €140; smart watches should sell about two million units at an ASP of €150.
• The €550 billion converged living room: a plateau approaches- Global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets and videogame consoles will exceed €550 billion in 2014, up €37 billion from 2013 and almost double the 2007 total. However a plateau appears likely: sales are expected to continue growing, but at a slower rate than over the past 10 years, with an estimated ceiling of about €585 billion per year.
• One became many: the tablet market stratifies- The installed base of compact tablets (with screens smaller than 9 inches) will surpass the base of classic tablets (9 inches and larger) for the first time. By end the first Quarter, we expect the base of compact tablets to be 165 million units, slightly ahead of the classic tablet base, with 160 million.

Media and Entertainment

• Doubling up on pay-TV- By the end 2014 up to 50 million homes around the world will have two or more separate pay-television subscriptions, with the additional subscriptions generating about €3.67 billion in revenues. A further 10 million homes will receive premium programming as part of their subscription to another service, such as broadband.
• Television measurement: for better and worse- Measurement of viewing of domestic television programs should become more accurate for tens of millions of viewers, thanks to the introduction of hybrid measurement, which enables the inclusion of viewing taking place on PCs, tablets and smartphones into overall viewing numbers and also includes other data sets, such as set-top box channel selections and video-on-demand server logs.
• Performance rights lift recorded music revenues- Revenues from performance rights, a license payable for the right to play music to the public, should exceed €730,000 for the first time. For the €12 billion recorded music industry, this is a significant figure.

Telecom

• Phablets are not a phad- Shipments of phablets, smartphones with 5.0-6.9 inch screens, will represent a quarter of smartphones sold, or 300 million units. That is double the 2013 volume, and 10 times 2012 sales. But after initial rapid consumer success, 2014 may mark a ‘peak phablet’ year, as only a (sizeable) minority of smartphones users will want to handle such a large device.
• The smartphone generation gap: Over 55? There’s no app for that- Over-55s will be the age group experiencing the fastest year-on-year rises in smartphone penetration across developed markets. Ownership should rise to between 45 to 50% by year-end, lower than the approximately 70% penetration rate for 18-54 year olds, but a 25% increase from 2013.
• In 2014, mobile instant messaging services (IMS) will generate about 70% of all messages sent from mobile phones, but only about 3% of the value. Every day, 70 billion messages will be sent via mobile, of which only 21 billion will be via short messaging service (SMS), but text message revenues are projected at about €73 billion this year, compared to just €1.5 billion for mobile IM services. Globally volumes of mobile IMS and text messages will grow, even though some developed markets may see falling SMS volumes.

Full details about the global TMT Predictions are available here: www.deloitte.com//lu/tmtpredictions2014